Sprott-Doob CRIMSL + Schulich Law SIU analyses

Part of Statistical Methods — MORIE’s statistical-methods reference.

morie.sprott_doob replicates the analytical contribution of four research reports authored by Prof. Jane B. Sprott (Toronto Metropolitan University, formerly Ryerson) and Prof. Anthony N. Doob (University of Toronto), with Prof. Adelina Iftene (Dalhousie Schulich School of Law) co-authoring the May 2021 paper on Independent External Decision Makers.

The four reports together form the most comprehensive independent academic analysis of Canada’s federal SIU system through 2021.

The four reports

  • 2020-10 — Understanding the Operation of CSC’s SIUs. Sprott & Doob; CRIMSL, University of Toronto.

  • 2020-11 — Is there Clear Evidence COVID-19 Was the Cause of Problems with the SIUs? Sprott & Doob; CRIMSL, University of Toronto.

  • 2021-02-23 — Solitary Confinement, Torture, and Canada’s SIUs. Sprott & Doob; CRIMSL, University of Toronto.

  • 2021-05-09 — Do Independent External Decision Makers Ensure … ? Sprott, Doob & Iftene; Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University.

Headline replicated findings

February 2021 paper (Mandela classifier on N = 1,960 SIU stays):

  • Solitary Confinement (Mandela Rule 44, ≤ 2 hrs out, ≤ 15 days): 28.4 %, N = 556.

  • Torture (Mandela Rules 43 + 44, same conditions, ≥ 16 days): 9.9 %, N = 195.

  • All other: 61.7 %, N = 1,209.

Pacific region’s torture rate (39.1 per 1000 prisoners) is 22.6× Ontario’s (1.73 per 1000).

May 2021 paper (N=265 IEDM-reviewed stays, 380 reviews):

  • 8.7% of IEDM decisions ⇒ “remove from SIU”

  • 58.9% ⇒ “remain in SIU”

  • 30.3% ⇒ CSC moved the prisoner BEFORE the IEDM ruled

  • 12 IEDMs varied 37.5%–85.7% in their “should remain” rate (χ²=26.12, df=11, p<.01)

  • 105 long-stays (76+ days) had NO IEDM record — apparent compliance failure with CCRA s.37.8.

  • Indigenous: 40.4% of reviewed stays. Black: 15.8% (~4× the Black share of the Canadian adult population). Black prisoners are also significantly more likely to stay 121+ days (12.7% vs 6.1% for whites; χ²=41.63, df=15, p<.001).

Mandela classifier

The classifier operationalizes UN Mandela Rules 43 and 44:

from morie.sprott_doob import classify_mandela

classify_mandela(days_in_siu=20, hrs_out_of_cell_avg=1.5,
                  missed_full_4hrs_pct_of_days=100)
# {'category': 'Torture', 'rule': 'Mandela Rules 43+44', 'reason': ...}

classify_mandela(days_in_siu=8, hrs_out_of_cell_avg=1.5,
                  missed_full_4hrs_pct_of_days=100)
# {'category': 'Solitary Confinement', 'rule': 'Mandela Rule 44', ...}

χ² verification

Every published χ² value is recomputed from the transcribed cell counts. All five tested χ² statistics (Tables 11, 15, 22 from Feb 2021 plus Tables 5, 10 from May 2021) reproduce to within 0.01:

from morie.sprott_doob import verify_published_chi_squares
r = verify_published_chi_squares()
# 5/5 pass

Use verify_chi2(observed_table) to recompute χ² + p-value for any 2D contingency table.

Mandela-RF — applying the classifier to OTIS provincial data

The Mandela 15-day threshold also applies to Ontario provincial OTIS data via three analyzers in morie.otis_all_analyze:

from morie.otis_all_analyze import (
    analyze_b05_mandela_classification,           # per-placement
    analyze_c11_mandela_classification,           # per-individual
    analyze_otis_mandela_provincial_vs_federal,   # cross-comparison
)

The provincial OTIS data is duration-only (no hours-out-of-cell), so the Ontario classification is a duration-only proxy for the Mandela threshold. Despite that limitation, the headline cross-comparison finding is striking: the Ontario provincial Segregation torture rate (per-individual, c11 view) is 12.5% in 2023, 16.5% in 2024, and 20.6% in 2025 — over 2× the federal SIU rate of 9.9% that Sprott-Doob found in 2019-2020 federal data, and trending upward.

Caveats apply (different units — federal person-stays vs provincial individuals; different Mandela operationalization — federal full hours-out-of-cell + duration vs provincial duration-only). Use the cross-comparison analyzer for an interpretation-aware view.

Position in the MRM stack

The Sprott-Doob analyses sit at the federal national-aggregate level, complementing:

  • Provincial individual-level evidence on Ontario OTIS data via the MRM modules ensemble (a01/b01/b02 per-row analyzers).

  • Provincial aggregate evidence via the b03-b09, c01-c12, d02-d05 RF analyzers + Doob χ² family on c-series + d-series.

analyze_ruhela_master(include_per_row=False) surfaces key Sprott- Doob and Sprott-Doob-Iftene rows in §4 of the paper-ready master report.

Citations

from morie.siuiap import cite

cite("sprott_doob_torture_solitary_2021")
# Jane B. Sprott, Anthony N. Doob (2021). Solitary Confinement,
# Torture, and Canada's Structured Intervention Units. Centre for
# Criminology & Sociolegal Studies, University of Toronto.

cite("sprott_doob_iftene_external_decision_makers_2021")
# Jane B. Sprott, Anthony N. Doob, Adelina Iftene (2021). Do
# Independent External Decision Makers Ensure that "An Inmate's
# Confinement in a Structured Intervention Unit Is to End as Soon
# as Possible"? [Corrections and Conditional Release Act, Section
# 33]. Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University ...

The two private-Drive Sprott-Doob papers (Oct 2020 + Nov 2020) have filename author orders that differ between the two — “DoobSprott…” and “Sprott&Doob…” respectively. Authorship attribution in siuiap.CRIMSL_REPORTS follows the published front-matter on the public CRIMSL/Schulich uploads (Sprott first); when in doubt, follow the front matter on the actual document.